How to build "Chimerica" ​​- A brief discussion of the limitations of President Trump's China policy

 

It felt like Trump’s election rally in Madison Square was very successful. The fact that so many supporters came to the scene shows that Trump is indeed very popular in New York. In addition, I was eating hot pot while listening to the speech, and as a foreigner, my blood boiled with excitement. Among the Chinese who supported Trump outside Madison Square, an aunt was interviewed. This interview video was later forwarded by many people, including Musk. I think if China can one day hold this kind of electoral conference, most Chinese people who are now keen to come to the United States will be reluctant to come to the United States, and China will become the target of a flood of illegal immigrants like the United States now.

Chinese people who come to the United States do not have the right to vote in their home country. They only have the right to vote for the first time in the United States. The dream of many Chinese people is for China to become as powerful a country as the United States. Of course, their thinking is problematic, but what we are really worth pursuing is to have freedom like the American people.

It seems difficult now, although ten years ago, many ordinary Chinese people thought that China was surpassing the United States, and in some aspects it had already surpassed the United States.

The emergence of President Trump changed everything. President Trump is the first U.S. president since President Richard Nixon, or in the past few decades, to have a truly severely hostile attitude toward the Chinese government. His China policy of the previous term was basically followed by President Biden. After seven or eight years of suppression, mainland China's industries have become stagnant. In the future, the increasingly impatient Chinese government may even have a military confrontation with the United States in the Taiwan Strait.

Recalling that when Sino-US relations were at their best, some people even proposed the concept of "Chimerica" ​​- now it all seems like a lifetime ago.

Why is this happening?

Some people say it is civilizational opposition. This belongs to Huntington’s discourse system. I think it might as well be said clearly that the real reason is political opposition. When eating, Indians use their hands, Europeans and Americans use knives and forks, and Chinese and Japanese use chopsticks. Cultural differences at this level may lead to dislike of each other, but it will not lead to confrontation between countries at all. The confrontation between the American state and the Chinese state is essentially a confrontation between two political systems.

In this sense, President Trump’s policies so far are not a real solution to the Sino-US issue. Unconditional high tariffs on trade with China will definitely destroy the Chinese economy. However, European and American countries are currently producing low-end industrial products on their own, but the profits are very small, and local entrepreneurs are unwilling to do so. If people in Europe and America don't buy cheap, low-end industrial products from China, they will buy them from other regions. In other words, banning the import of low-end industrial products from China will not promote the prosperity of similar local companies in Europe and the United States. Only restricting the import of relatively high-end industrial products such as electric vehicles cannot actually shake China's prosperity. In the past few decades, Chinese people have made money by selling shoes, socks, and pants. At the Chinese government level, as long as it is not politically bankrupt, no matter how bad the economy is, it can still maintain its rule. As a mainland politician said: Chinese people can survive by eating grass for three years. The best effect of President Trump's policies is to create a Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union, forcing China to experience a longer period of decline in isolation.

Although the United States has not really exerted pressure on the Chinese government in the field of political change in the past few decades, the existence of differences between the American system and China has itself constituted a threat to the Chinese government. Any Chinese who attended President Trump’s Madison Square election rally will no doubt not help but wonder: Why haven’t we done this before? When will China elect its president? The Chinese government's highest expectation is that the United States will become a "socialist" country like itself or fall into turmoil. However, if the United States fails politically, it will inevitably become South African and South American banana republics. The United States will not have such a huge market now, and the money that the Chinese can earn from the United States will be greatly reduced.

If China is content to supply low-end industrial products to European and American countries for a long time and develop itself slowly and steadily, and European and American countries have more than a short-sighted attitude towards China that is only satisfied with making quick money, maybe "Chimerica" ​​can really be realized in the future. But this is difficult. China has a huge party and government civil service system, and there are a large number of inefficient state-owned enterprises in the existing economic system. The core of China’s national interests is to ensure the interests of these institutions; Americans actually do not Caring about the long-term well-being of the Chinese people is just like us Chinese essentially lacking motivation to care about the well-being of the American people: It’s OK to go to China to make a lot of money, but why should we Americans make sacrifices for the progress and development of the Chinese people? 

These practical and ideological problems are not without legitimacy. However, in order to establish an ideal "Chimerica", these problems must be solved first. And once these problems are solved, I firmly believe that what will follow will be a positive globalization, and it is a globalization that even Trumpists and American conservatives will not oppose.

Americans often wonder why mainland Chinese and Taiwanese Chinese generally lack gratitude towards the United States. Don't they know that the United States was the first to return indemnities to China after the Boxer Protocol; that it established numerous hospitals, universities, and charities in China, helping China win the War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression; and that it helped both mainland China and Taiwan achieve economic prosperity? Indeed, these are all acts of kindness that Americans have shown toward the Chinese people. Many in Taiwan distrust the United States. The reason is that the United States has betrayed Taiwan twice. The first was during the Chinese Civil War, when Americans stood by and watched, leading to the Republic of China losing territory on the mainland. The second betrayal was the establishment of diplomatic relations with PRC China in the late 1970s. However, if you consider Taiwanese people part of the Chinese people, you'll realize that this was a betrayal not only to the Taiwanese but also to the Chinese people. The good things Americans have done for the Chinese people are far less significant than the harm they have inflicted on the Chinese people. Of course, it's true that helping the Chinese is not an inherent obligation for Americans. Every country and nation has its own interests. What benefit does it bring to Americans by helping the Chinese achieve unity and prosperity? However, I believe that, compared to many temporary and local interests, America's greatest interest lies in promoting the civilization and well-being of all mankind by eliminating barbaric regimes. Consider Japan and Germany. They are now allies of the United States and important partners economically and politically. If the United States had compromised with Germany and Japan, many young Americans would have lived peacefully into their old age. However, the United States would not be the world's most powerful and wealthy nation today. Germany and Japan might still be controlled by extreme ideologies, eager to exploit American resources. Nations never perish for lack of enemies; nations decline because of their extravagance and debauchery. 

The fundamental problem of the Chinese region is that "those without permanent property have no permanent ambition". This problem is definitely not a recent one. It has existed since the time of Qin Shihuang. Of course, how to establish and maintain permanent property is another issue, but China, with its territory, resources and population, is another country that may help mankind achieve greater progress. If Americans can help China establish a stable state system and make China civilized, then the barbarians in other regions will be further civilized under the influence of this change. If global democratization really happens, human civilization may enter the next dimension of development. 

If China maintains a backward system for a long time, the United States will have a limited competitor that can help maintain its global hegemony for a long time, but can the United States avoid the decline of the Roman Empire due to internal subversion? This is a question. Putting aside moral and ideological factors, each country has its own geopolitical and national interests. This may be part of the reason why Europe and the United States supported the Qing Dynasty during the Taiping Rebellion and chose to stand aside during the Kuomintang-Communist Civil War. This is understandable. It is difficult for anyone to make decisions and act from the standpoint of absolute morality, truth and science. Such a human being has never appeared among the Chinese. 

From this perspective, the true liberation of the Chinese region lies in the final awakening of its people. 

But what about promoting the emergence of a Commonwealth-style country? 

I think the wise strategy for the Chinese people is to pursue an ideal of Americhina rather than Chimerica.